A recent poll conducted by Paraná Pesquisas between April 16th and 19th, 2025, shows Jair Bolsonaro ahead of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a potential presidential election. This is the only scenario where Lula doesn't lead in the first round.
Lula trails Bolsonaro in various head-to-head scenarios against Michelle Bolsonaro and TarcĂsio de Freitas. In all three second-round scenarios tested, Lula finishes behind Bolsonaro, Michelle, and TarcĂsio.
The poll was commissioned by the PL party (Bolsonaro's party). Bolsonaro's inclusion is notable given his current ineligibility to run. Lula's performance against other right-wing candidates, including Ratinho Jr., further reinforces Bolsonaro's apparent advantage in this particular poll.