The author contends that Donald Trump's reliance on instinct rather than careful analysis poses significant risks to both domestic and international affairs. Trump's actions, particularly his tariff increases and reliance on questionable advisors, are deemed reckless and potentially destructive.
The author points out that the relatively peaceful and prosperous state of the world is largely due to globalization, trade, and America's role as a benign hegemon. This system, characterized by a balance of power and interconnected economies, is at risk due to Trump's disruptive policies.
The core argument is that Trump fails to grasp this delicate balance. His actions threaten to unravel the existing international order, which benefits the US despite allowing some trade advantages to other countries. Trump's actions are described as potentially destabilizing and economically unwise.
The author concludes that Trump's decisions, driven by gut feelings rather than understanding of complex global dynamics, are a dangerous gamble with potentially far-reaching negative consequences for the United States and the world.