The article argues that Vladimir Putin's actions in Ukraine stem from three critical misjudgments. Firstly, he underestimated the Ukrainian people's resolve and ability to innovate, aided by Western support and technology like Starlink. Secondly, he underestimated the European response, which led to a renewed focus on military buildup and a united front against Russian aggression.
Thirdly, and perhaps most significantly, Putin miscalculated Donald Trump's intentions and negotiating style. While Trump seeks a ceasefire to avoid further bloodshed, Putin's attempts to exploit this desire are seen as a dangerous miscalculation. Putin's belief that Trump's patience represents weakness is deemed a profound error.
The author suggests that if Trump deems negotiation futile, he might resort to forceful measures against Putin, jeopardizing the latter's rule. The article concludes that Putin will need to ultimately accept a truce that ensures a free and independent Ukraine to maintain power, forcing him to learn from his mistakes.