Quaest: Lula lidera cenários de 2º turno das eleições 2026 - 03/04/2025 - Poder - Folha

Key Findings:

President Lula maintains a lead in all second-round scenarios of the 2026 Brazilian elections, according to a Genial/Quaest poll. This is despite his government's declining popularity; 41% view it negatively, compared to 27% positively.

The poll, conducted from March 27-31 with 2,004 respondents, has a margin of error of ±2%.

Runoff Scenarios:

• Lula vs. Bolsonaro: Lula 44%, Bolsonaro 40%.
• Lula vs. Michelle Bolsonaro: Lula 44%, Michelle Bolsonaro 38%.
• Lula vs. Tarcísio de Freitas: Lula 43%, Tarcísio 37%.
• Lula vs. Ratinho Junior: Lula 42%, Ratinho Junior 35%.
• Lula vs. Pablo Marçal: Lula 44%, Pablo Marçal 35%.
• Lula vs. Eduardo Bolsonaro: Lula 45%, Eduardo Bolsonaro 34%.
• Lula vs. Romeu Zema: Lula 43%, Romeu Zema 31%.
• Lula vs. Ronaldo Caiado: Lula 44%, Ronaldo Caiado 30%.

Note that Bolsonaro is currently ineligible for the 2026 election.

Public Opinion:

• 62% believe Lula shouldn't run for reelection.
• Regarding fear of a Lula or Bolsonaro presidency, 44% fear Bolsonaro's return, while 41% fear Lula's continuation.
• Spontaneous mentions for president: Lula (9%), Bolsonaro (7%).
• Regarding potential right-wing candidates, Tarcísio de Freitas leads at 15%.

The poll also noted high rejection rates for Lula and Bolsonaro (55%).