The podcast "Raport Międzynarodowy" features Radosław Pyffel, who argues that China's extensive efforts to reduce its exports to the US stemmed from its long-standing preparation for a potential trade war. Pyffel highlights that China's greatest fear was a full-scale trade war with the US, the EU, Japan, Korea, and other US allies simultaneously. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump, therefore, represents the best of several bad scenarios for China.
The discussion explores China's current economic status, questioning whether it's a middle-income or high-income country, and its ability to stimulate domestic demand to offset potential losses in the American market.
The podcast also addresses the controversial remarks made by US Vice President J.D. Vance, who referred to Chinese people as "villagers." Pyffel points out that such comments are unacceptable given the Chinese people's sensitivity to class and prestige.
The discussion delves into the extent of China's ambitions, comparing its potential for imperialism with that of Russia. Pyffel suggests that while China's strategic culture differs significantly from Russia's—excluding the issue of Taiwan—the use of force is considered a failure in Chinese strategic culture. However, he leaves the possibility of a forceful takeover of Taiwan open. Pyffel suggests that China will likely increase pressure on Taipei while aiming to avoid forceful solutions.
The podcast also considers the concerns of Vietnam and other nations near China regarding rising Chinese power. Ironically, these nations have found themselves more directly opposed to the United States, thus weakening any potential anti-China alliance. Pyffel suggests that by declaring China to be the greatest challenge to the US, Donald Trump inadvertently weakened the anti-China front.