Resolve Political Monitor: Labor primary vote exposed in key states despite recovery this year

Labor's Primary Vote

Labor's primary vote shows a mixed picture. While improving from January and February, it's still lower than its 2022 election showing. In NSW, a decline could impact marginal seats held by Labor. In Victoria, a swing to Liberals threatens Labor's hold on several seats. Queensland also presents challenges for Labor, with a primary vote of 25%, lower than the 2022 election's 27%.

State-Specific Analysis

• NSW: Labor's primary vote is lower, potentially aiding the Liberals in key seats.
• Victoria: A swing toward the Liberals could threaten Labor in certain Melbourne electorates.
• Queensland: Both Labor and LNP votes are down, with the Greens vote remaining stable.

The survey also included a two-party preferred vote showing Labor and Coalition tied at 50% in NSW, and Labor slightly ahead in Victoria.

Methodology

The Resolve Political Monitor's March survey of 3083 respondents used a weighting methodology that aimed to better reflect the wider Australian population. The survey differs from others by having no undecided category, presenting only the primary vote.

Overall Conclusion

Despite an overall improvement since January and February, Labor's recovery isn't enough to ensure a majority. Key state results highlight a significant challenge for the party in the upcoming elections.