The article discusses a growing consensus among Western diplomats and analysts regarding a potential end to the war in Ukraine. This involves establishing a demilitarized zone along an adjusted border, with negotiations determining the extent of Russian troop withdrawal. It acknowledges that Ukraine is unlikely to retake Crimea and the Donbas, and that Ukraine's NATO membership is not currently feasible. The West intends to deter future Russian aggression through maintaining Ukrainian military capabilities and establishing commercial corridors.
The article suggests that maintaining a well-armed Ukraine, combined with a commercial corridor involving mining concessions, will serve as a deterrent to future Russian attacks. The high casualty count on both sides is highlighted as a factor influencing the search for a resolution. The author expresses skepticism about the Biden administration's approach and contrasts it with Trump's more active role in negotiating an end to the conflict.
The article anticipates a complex negotiation process, with potential maneuvering and pressure tactics from both Trump and Putin, involving incentives like concessions for mining rights and trade embargoes on Russian oil. The author forecasts post-peace misinformation, with the potential downplaying of Trump's role and a narrative that paints Russia as the ultimate winner.
Finally, the article questions the anti-war left's preference for a prolonged war over a negotiated peace, which the author views as flawed and unrealistic.