A limited nuclear war between India and Pakistan, involving only 50 Hiroshima-sized bombs from each side, could have devastating global consequences, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. The resulting firestorms would inject millions of tons of soot into the stratosphere, reducing global temperatures and triggering widespread crop failure.
This temperature drop would cause a significant decrease in the production of major cereal crops (maize, wheat, soybeans, and rice) by an average of 11%. The impact would disproportionately affect the Global South, where food insecurity is already prevalent, leading to a drastic reduction in food supplies.
The study predicts that this conflict could cause a global famine exceeding the scale of any historical famine. Researchers estimate that 100 million deaths and potentially a far larger number of deaths from starvation could occur. This would lead to widespread humanitarian crisis and global instability.
Further research from UCL supports these findings, estimating that such a conflict could kill 130 million people and leave 2.5 billion without adequate food for at least two years.