Independent pay review bodies have recommended pay rises of around 4% for teachers (514,000) and approximately 3% for NHS workers (1.38 million) in England. These recommendations are significantly higher than the government's 2.8% budget allocation.
The government is expected to accept these recommendations but faces financial strain. Departments will need to find efficiency savings to cover the added costs. The Treasury previously stated there would be no additional funding. The National Education Union will ballot for strike action if the offer is deemed unacceptable or no extra funding is provided. Other unions representing NHS workers, and potentially police, prison officers and soldiers, are also considering industrial action.
The National Education Union and NASUWT have threatened strikes. NHS workers are also considering resuming strikes. The Royal College of Nursing previously rejected a 5.5% pay offer and junior doctors, having received a 22% rise last year, may also return to strike action over further pay demands.
Economists estimate the recommended pay rises could cost an additional £1.1 billion. The government's financial position is already challenged by higher-than-expected borrowing. The situation could lead to tough choices regarding spending in other areas and potential financial difficulties in future years.
Labour has highlighted ending strikes as a goal, citing its role in recent reductions in NHS waiting lists. The Treasury is currently reviewing the recommendations.