Sudan’s Oil Crisis Is Only Bashir’s First Problem | Foreign Affairs

Sudan's Multifaceted Crisis

The article details the complex challenges facing Sudan under Omar al-Bashir's regime. The central issue is the oil dispute with South Sudan, where the South's decision to shut down oil wells after a disagreement over transit fees has exacerbated the situation. This is compounded by a growing internal rebellion involving multiple groups in Darfur, the Nuba Mountains, and Blue Nile.

Military and Economic Instability

Bashir's government is facing military challenges due to internal weaknesses, including corruption and a weakened army battling rebels. Economically, the loss of oil revenue following South Sudan's independence has created a significant budget deficit, leading to rising food prices and potential famine. The government's response has been repressive, involving crackdowns on protests and humanitarian blockades.

International Involvement and Potential Outcomes

The international community, particularly the United States, has been slow to react, although recent events prompted high-level diplomatic engagement. The article suggests various potential interventions, including a military response to any attack on South Sudan, brokering a revenue-sharing deal, and addressing the humanitarian crisis.

• Oil Dispute: South Sudan shut down oil wells due to payment disagreements with Khartoum.
• Internal Rebellions: Multiple rebel groups in Darfur and other regions are challenging Bashir's government.
• Economic Crisis: Loss of oil revenue and internal issues cause a severe budget deficit.
• Humanitarian Concerns: Government blockades and attacks on civilians are causing famine.
• International Response: The US and others are engaging diplomatically, but a strong military response is suggested to prevent war.