Supreme Court analysis: Trump tariffs could give him a surprise problem.

Trump's Firings and Tariffs

The article analyzes the Supreme Court case regarding Donald Trump's firing of executive branch members, specifically Gwynne Wilcox and Cathy Harris. The lower courts have reinstated and refired them multiple times, with the Chief Justice issuing an administrative stay. This case challenges the 1935 precedent of Humphrey's Executor, which limited the president's power to fire heads of multimember agencies.

Potential Impact on the Federal Reserve

The author suggests that the Supreme Court might hesitate to overturn Humphrey's Executor due to the potential consequences for the Federal Reserve's independence. Overturning this precedent could allow the president to fire Federal Reserve members and seize control of monetary policy, potentially leading to economic instability. Concerns are raised about Trump's unpredictable tariff policies exacerbating this risk.

Conservative Justices' Dilemma

The author notes the conservative justices' likely desire to uphold Trump's actions but acknowledges the potential repercussions of granting him unfettered control over the Federal Reserve. The possibility of the court arbitrarily exempting the Fed or Trump ignoring an unfavorable ruling is discussed.

• The article highlights the interconnectedness of the firings and tariff policies, arguing that the latter might influence the Supreme Court's decision.
• The potential for a severe economic downturn if Trump gains control over the Federal Reserve is a central concern.
• The author speculates that the Supreme Court might prioritize preserving the Federal Reserve's independence over supporting Trump's actions.