Syria’s Uncertain New Order | Foreign Affairs

Syria's Uncertain New Order Under Ahmad al-Shara

Following the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Ahmad al-Shara assumed power in Syria. His caretaker government, while attempting inclusivity by appointing ministers from various religious and ethnic backgrounds, faces significant challenges.

Challenges and Internal Conflicts

The article highlights the tension between Shara's professed moderation and HTS's origins as a jihadist group. The March bloodshed targeting Alawites underscores the fragility of peace and the risk of renewed sectarian conflict. The new government's power is also centralized, leading to concerns about authoritarian rule and the potential 'Idlibization' of the state.

• Inclusivity Concerns: While some minority groups are represented in the cabinet, the influence of HTS remains significant, raising fears among various factions.
• Sectarian Violence: The Alawite killings in March demonstrate the potential for widespread conflict.
• Economic Crisis: Syria's economy is in shambles, further complicated by international sanctions.

The article also discusses the complex power dynamics within Syria, with HTS operating through multiple circles of power. Integration of various armed groups and factions remains a major challenge.

International Relations and Sanctions

The new government's success hinges on securing international support, particularly in lifting sanctions. The article emphasizes the need for cooperation with outside powers to rebuild the economy and address urgent humanitarian needs.

Conclusion

Syria's future remains uncertain. The new government faces an uphill battle in establishing stability, tackling economic woes, and preventing a resurgence of violence. The actions of Shara and the international community will significantly influence whether Syria can achieve a more peaceful and inclusive future.