The Philippines Are Now Focused on China's Threats to Taiwan

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Key Concerns and Shifting Priorities

The article highlights the Philippines' increasing focus on the potential conflict between China and Taiwan, driven by escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. This shift marks a departure from previous administrations' prioritization of internal security issues and disputes in the South China Sea.

Philippine President Marcos' Stance

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has publicly expressed concerns about the Taiwan situation, acknowledging the possibility of Philippine involvement in any conflict. This public acknowledgment represents a significant shift in the country's official stance.

Enhanced Defense Cooperation

The expansion of the U.S.-Philippines Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), allowing the U.S. military access to nine Philippine bases, including three on Luzon Island near Taiwan, is a crucial aspect of this changing dynamic. While the government insists on a non-offensive role for these bases, their potential use in a Taiwan scenario is implicit.

Joint Defense Strategies

The recently completed (but undisclosed) Comprehensive Archipelagic Defense Concept shows a shift toward prioritizing external threats, particularly those posed by China. Joint U.S.-Philippine initiatives, such as the construction of a facility on Itbayat Island and the conducting of joint military exercises, demonstrate a practical implementation of this strategy.

Implications and Uncertainties

The increased focus on Taiwan may lead to:

• Greater collaboration with the U.S. military, potentially including access to more bases.
• A need to balance the focus on Taiwan with other existing security priorities, particularly in the South China Sea.

However, uncertainties remain, including the potential impact of future U.S. administrations and potential changes in Philippine leadership.

Potential Disruptions

The article points to potential disruptions like:

• A future U.S. administration potentially reducing security commitments to the Philippines.
• A shift in Philippine leadership prioritizing closer ties with China and reducing reliance on the U.S.

Conclusion

Despite these uncertainties, the article concludes that China's pressure campaign against Taiwan will persist, requiring continued U.S.-Philippines engagement to mitigate the impact of a potential Taiwan conflict on the Philippines.