The article analyzes the surprising shift in U.S. foreign policy under President Trump's second term. Initially, both Trump and Biden's administrations focused on great-power competition with China and Russia. However, Trump's second term saw a dramatic change, moving towards a strategy of great-power collusion, aiming for collaboration with these rivals rather than competition.
The concept of 'great-power competition' lacked a defined strategy and served more as a narrative. It portrayed the U.S. either as a strong hero or a victim, with China and Russia as antagonists plotting against American interests. This narrative influenced how events were interpreted, with various global issues framed within the competition paradigm.
Trump's second term marked a significant departure, moving from a competitive stance to seeking deals with China and Russia. This approach resembles historical 'concert' systems where major powers collaborate to manage international order, such as the Concert of Europe after the Napoleonic Wars. While competition will continue, the organizing principle of U.S. foreign policy has changed fundamentally.
The article draws parallels between Trump's approach and historical concert systems, noting their potential for both stability and instability. The Concert of Europe, while initially promoting peace, ultimately collapsed due to unresolved tensions and intensified imperial competition. Similar risks exist with Trump's new approach, as conflicts of interest and ideological differences could undermine the collaboration.
The article highlights several challenges that could hinder Trump's strategy. Defining and managing spheres of influence would be difficult. Ideological differences between the great powers might resurface. Resistance from smaller and middle powers is also likely. Furthermore, Trump's lack of consistent approach and reliance on transactional deal-making, rather than genuine collaboration, poses significant risks.
The article concludes that while a great-power concert could offer a framework for a multipolar world, Trump's approach of collusion through transactional deal-making and threats, rather than genuine collaboration, could lead to instability. This approach, similar to the historical Concert of Europe, might initially bring peace, but harbors the potential to collapse under pressure from unresolved tensions and heightened competition, ultimately leading to widespread conflict.