The article examines the global shift from globalism to nationalism in the early 2010s, focusing on the roles of leaders like Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It argues that Donald Trump's presidency represents a culmination of this trend, emphasizing an "America First" approach.
The analysis traces Trump's foreign policy not to the 1930s America First movement, but to the right-wing anti-communist movement of the 1950s, citing influences from figures like Whittaker Chambers, James Burnham, and Pat Buchanan.
The article describes the revisionist foreign policies of Putin, Xi, Modi, and Erdogan, noting their focus on national interests and historical narratives. It highlights Russia's war in Ukraine as a key turning point, disrupting the established international order.
The article presents contrasting scenarios for a second Trump term: a vision of war and a vision of peace.
This scenario highlights the risks of further erosion of international rules, the potential for escalating conflicts, especially in Ukraine, and the possibility of wider wars involving NATO members.
This scenario suggests that a less confrontational approach by Trump could lead to reduced tensions and increased diplomatic engagement with Russia and China, focusing on issue-by-issue cooperation instead of broad systemic challenges.
The article concludes that the current international system is unlike any seen before, lacking a clear structure. However, it argues that a Trump administration could utilize American power, alliances, and economic statecraft to reduce conflict and foster cooperation, even in the absence of a stable global order.