The Zeitenwende Is Real This Time | Foreign Affairs

Germany's Zeitenwende: A Necessary Transformation?

This Foreign Affairs article analyzes Germany's significant shift in foreign and defense policy, moving away from its post-WWII reliance on the U.S. security umbrella towards greater autonomy and increased military spending. The article argues that this "Zeitenwende" (turning point) is driven by Russia's actions in Ukraine and a growing perception that the U.S. is becoming an unreliable partner.

Key Drivers of Change

• Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: The 2022 invasion served as a catalyst, highlighting the need for Germany to strengthen its defenses.
• Waning U.S. Commitment: Concerns about the U.S.’s reliability as a security guarantor, particularly under the Trump administration, further propelled Germany's shift.
• Removal of Debt Brake: The lifting of Germany's constitutional debt limit opens the door for massive investment in defense and infrastructure.

The article notes the political complexities within Germany, including navigating coalition infighting and dealing with rising support for the far-right, pro-Putin Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Consequences and Challenges

• Increased Responsibility: Germany will bear a greater burden for deterring Russia, a considerable challenge.
• Risk of Nationalism: The potential for a resurgent nationalism in Germany and neighboring countries, exacerbated by a stronger German military, is highlighted as a significant concern.
• Geopolitical Implications: Germany's increased power and autonomy could destabilize regional power dynamics, potentially leading to friction with other European nations.

The article concludes by suggesting that a gradual U.S. military withdrawal from Europe, coordinated with Germany's rearmament, would mitigate risks and allow for a smoother transition. A well-managed transformation could see Germany become a stabilizing force in Europe, while uncontrolled change could spark regional instability and revive dangerous forms of nationalism.