This Is the Way a World Order Ends - The Atlantic

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The Decline of the Current World Order

The article argues that the current world order, built on international institutions and norms, is decaying, similar to past historical shifts. The author uses historical examples such as the fall of the Roman Empire and the end of the Soviet Union to illustrate this process. The current situation is marked by rising great-power rivalry, a return of imperialism, and the disregard of previously established rules about territorial integrity.

Historical Parallels

The author draws parallels between the current situation and various historical events, including:

  • The collapse of the Ottoman Empire, showing how the weakening of a major power can lead to regional conflicts.
  • The Russian annexation of Crimean and Georgian territories, violating the post-World War II norm of non-recognition of territorial seizure.
  • The rise of spheres of influence, referencing examples like the 19th century's carving up of China among Western powers.

The Role of the United States

The article emphasizes the United States’ crucial role in shaping and maintaining the post-World War II order, highlighting how the Trump administration's policies have contributed to its decline. The author points to the withdrawal of the US from various agreements and its implicit embrace of spheres of influence as evidence of a shift in US foreign policy and the consequent weakening of the liberal international order.

The Emerging World Order

The author predicts the emergence of a new world order defined by spheres of influence, potentially leading to increased instability and conflict. This new reality is characterized by:

  • The weakening of international institutions and norms.
  • The return of great-power competition and potential for conflict.
  • The increase in authoritarianism globally.

The Path Forward

While the outlook is bleak, the article concludes by referencing historical precedents of hope. The author points to past efforts toward international cooperation and conflict resolution, such as the League of Nations and the United Nations, as potential models for creating a new and improved international order. However, achieving this requires addressing the underlying economic and political grievances that fuel populism and authoritarianism.

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