Trump and Iran: Why a Nuclear Deal Is Unlikely

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Key Challenges to a US-Iran Nuclear Deal

The article explores the significant hurdles hindering a nuclear deal between the Trump administration and Iran. It emphasizes the lack of ideal solutions when negotiating with Iran, citing their human rights abuses, support for terrorism, and provision of drones to Russia. The article notes Iran's vulnerability due to economic sanctions and internal strife, yet also highlights their defiance and advancements in their nuclear program.

Iran's Position and Vulnerabilities

Despite internal economic and political pressures and the weakening of their proxies by Israel, Iran remains defiant and unwilling to make significant concessions. The article mentions that Iran might compromise only when feeling the regime's survival is threatened, requiring long-term negotiations.

Trump's Objectives and Internal Divisions

Trump's desire for a deal better than the JCPOA, coupled with internal divisions within his administration regarding the deal's scope, further complicates the situation. The article points to the differing views between hard-line advisors who want to dismantle Iran's nuclear program and those more focused on verification measures.

Israel's Diminished Influence

While Israel's recent military actions against Iran and its proxies have weakened them, Israel's influence over the US-Iran negotiations is limited as Trump prioritizes a deal with Iran over fully aligning with Netanyahu's stance.

Conflicting Timelines

The article concludes by highlighting the contrasting timelines: Trump's urgency for a swift deal versus Iran's deliberate and slow approach, potentially aiming to outlast the JCPOA's snapback provisions. This clash of timelines presents a major obstacle to reaching an agreement.

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