The article analyzes the escalating rivalry between the United States and China, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's policies. Trump's trade war is accelerating the economic decoupling of the two nations, eroding the previously strong economic interdependence that had acted as a buffer against conflict.
Trump's actions have also sown distrust among traditional US allies, leading them to seek greater strategic autonomy, even independence, as exemplified by statements from the future German chancellor. This weakens Washington's ability to unite allies in containing China.
While the US maintains a higher GDP, China's growing economic power, particularly its manufacturing capacity and technological advancements (e.g., hypersonic weapons and AI), presents a significant challenge. The article discusses the potential for escalation, with China possessing considerable leverage through its control of strategic materials and its holdings of US debt.
Experts interviewed for the article express concerns about the risks associated with the escalating tensions. They highlight the potential for China to weather the economic storm better due to its political system and population size and the difficulty for the US to sustain its trade war in the long term.
The article concludes that the intensified competition will likely lead to a more volatile world order characterized by shifting spheres of influence, with opportunities for other nations to leverage the superpower rivalry to their advantage. While a full-blown military conflict is not guaranteed, the risks of escalation are considerably higher.