The article argues that Donald Trump, facing economic turmoil stemming from his trade policies, is likely to target Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chairman, as a scapegoat. This is based on Trump's past actions in removing heads of other supposedly independent agencies, particularly the FBI.
Trump's trade war has resulted in market instability and economic decline. He blames the Fed, seeking lower interest rates to alleviate the consequences of his own trade policies. The article cites Trump's past discontent with Powell, and his history of removing agency heads who don't follow his orders (e.g., replacing FBI Directors Comey and Wray with a loyalist).
The piece highlights the shift in the independence of the FBI under Trump. Historically, presidents avoided dismissing FBI directors appointed by their predecessors; however, Trump dismissed two, ultimately installing a loyalist. This establishes a pattern of disregarding agency independence.
The author questions whether the Federal Reserve's independence from presidential influence is secure. The Supreme Court's refusal of interim relief in challenges to Trump's firing of other agency heads raises concerns about the future of the Fed's independence. The potential for Trump to install a loyalist, similar to what happened with the FBI, is deemed highly probable.
The economic challenges facing the U.S. are presented as a direct consequence of Trump's trade policies. The article points out that the Fed is in a difficult position, as a short-term interest rate cut during inflation could exacerbate the problem. The real solution lies in altering Trump's trade policies, but he's unlikely to admit fault.
Ultimately, the article paints a picture of a president willing to compromise the independence of government agencies to deflect blame for his own policy failures, highlighting the potential political and economic ramifications of this behavior. The article suggests that the Federal Reserve's independence is at serious risk.