The article details the economic consequences of Trump's tariffs on both the US and China. The US faces challenges like capital flight, market volatility, inflation, and potential shortages. China, while also negatively impacted, has diversified its export markets, making it less vulnerable.
The analysis suggests China might only need to provide Trump with a superficial victory to end the trade war. The US seeks reductions in tariffs, access to critical minerals, and action against fentanyl production from China in exchange. A 'nothingburger' deal, appearing beneficial for both sides without significant concessions, is seen as a potential solution.
Recent trade data reveals China's exports, though slowing, remained significantly above expectations. Exports to the US, however, declined sharply after the tariffs were imposed. China's ability to redirect exports to other markets highlights the adaptability of its economy. The article warns that even reduced tariffs could have substantial negative consequences for the US due to the baseline tariff.
The author suggests that Trump's trade policy, while damaging for China and the global economy, also poses a severe risk of self-destruction for the United States. The conclusion emphasizes the need for a face-saving solution to de-escalate the trade war.