Trump’s tariff and trade war is a doomed quest fueled by nostalgia | Vox

Trump's Doomed Quest: A Nostalgia-Fueled Trade War

The article critiques Donald Trump's trade policies, arguing they are based on a nostalgic longing for the 1950s and 60s manufacturing-heavy economy, rather than rational economic development. Trump's proposed tariffs, including a 10% minimum tariff on all foreign imports, are deemed counterproductive, likely reducing US competitiveness and increasing costs.

The Allure of the Postwar Industrial Economy

The article explores the right-wing nationalist view associating the postwar industrial economy with positive social and material conditions, including high wages, marriage, fertility rates, and low regional inequality. They believe restoring US manufacturing employment will resurrect this 'golden age'. This narrative frames deindustrialization as synonymous with economic devastation and moral decay.

• This nostalgic view is linked to a belief that the decline of manufacturing impacted men disproportionately, affecting family formation and social cohesion.
• Influential right-wing voices suggest that addressing low birth rates requires enhancing men's economic status, potentially at women's expense.

The Reality of Deindustrialization

The article acknowledges the negative consequences of deindustrialization, including lower wages, decreased social mobility, and rising income inequality. It cites evidence that manufacturing jobs did pay significantly more than comparable positions in other sectors, and that the decline of unions contributed to wage stagnation. The article points out that while deindustrialization is a significant factor, it is not the sole reason for these problems.

The Inevitability of Decline & the Flawed Tariff Strategy

The article argues that the decline of manufacturing employment was inevitable due to:

• Shifts in consumer spending towards services rather than goods.
• The easier automation of manufacturing compared to services.

It highlights that even countries like Japan, despite promoting manufacturing, experienced similar employment shifts. The article concludes that Trump's tariffs are unlikely to revive the past industrial economy and will likely harm the US economy by increasing costs, prompting retaliatory measures, and discouraging investment.

Alternative Paths to Economic Improvement

The article proposes alternatives to Trump's approach, including:

• Strengthening collective bargaining to improve worker leverage.
• Addressing regulatory constraints on blue-collar labor, particularly in housing and infrastructure.
• Expanding access to education and training.
• Investing in social welfare programs to mitigate the impacts of future economic changes.

The article concludes that creating a more prosperous and equitable economy doesn't require a return to the past but rather requires focusing on the present and future needs.