Trump tariffs and Liberation Day is about ideology, not the US economy

Ideological Drivers

The article posits that Trump's economic policies and Brexit aren't primarily about economic gain, but rather about national sovereignty and a rejection of globalization. It argues these actions stem from a belief that a declining power can regain strength through forceful assertion of will, ignoring the potential for global reliance to shift elsewhere.

Globalization Trilemma

The author introduces Dani Rodrik's 'globalization trilemma', which states that one cannot simultaneously have globalization, democracy, and national sovereignty. The choices involve prioritizing two out of three, potentially leading to painful economic consequences.

• Sovereignty and Globalization: Achievable through government control over the population.
• Democracy and Sovereignty: Possible by rejecting globalization and maintaining national control.
• Globalization and Democracy: Requires directly involving citizens in global institutions, diminishing national sovereignty.

The current situation, according to the article, reflects the inability to maintain all three simultaneously, leading to economic ramifications like the potential for a US recession.

Economic Consequences

While acknowledging the economic harm of policies prioritizing sovereignty, the article emphasizes that people value sovereignty and control, particularly those feeling a loss of status. The author suggests that even when economic consequences manifest, many will remain committed to the ideology of national sovereignty, viewing it as a response to lost national pride.