The article examines Donald Trump's erratic tariff policies, deemed irrational by most economists due to their negative impact on the US economy. The author questions the reasons behind these actions, noting that protectionism is a consistent element of Trump's thinking.
The author draws parallels to Barbara Tuchman's work, 'The March of Folly,' which explores irrational decisions made by leaders throughout history. It is argued that irrationality is not exclusive to populists and presents examples from past US presidents, including John F. Kennedy and his involvement in the Vietnam War, and Richard Nixon's eventual resolution of it.
The piece emphasizes the power of beliefs over rationality in political decision-making, highlighting Kennedy's awareness of the Vietnam War's likely failure despite his actions. This parallels Trump's actions, suggesting a similar tendency to prioritize personal conviction over objective realities.
The analysis extends to the voters themselves, questioning the assumption of rational economic behavior. The Brexit example demonstrates how voters prioritize other factors, such as 'taking back control,' over economic consequences. The article suggests that for Trump's voters, national pride might outweigh economic considerations.
The author explores the paradox of rational actions not guaranteeing political success, using the example of Gerhard Schröder's successful economic reforms that ultimately led to his electoral defeat. This underscores that political decisions are a complex interplay of various factors, including short-term gains and emotional responses from both leaders and voters, making rationality a less predictable path to success.