Trumpism will force nuclear-free policy review - Matthew Hooton - NZ Herald

Key Geopolitical Shifts

The article highlights the increasing global adoption of nuclear power and weapons, driven by factors like climate change, energy security concerns, and shifting military alliances. It mentions Australia's plans for nuclear reactors, the reversal of Germany's nuclear phase-out, and the growing nuclear arsenals of China and India.

New Zealand's Policy Options

The author outlines several potential policy paths for New Zealand:

• Peters Approach: Strengthening ties with the US and Australia, supporting the ANZUS treaty and AUKUS, and increasing defense spending.
• Ardern-Hipkins-Luxon Approach: Prioritizing the IP4 (Indo-Pacific Four) and NATO alliances, also requiring increased defense spending.
• Clark Approach: A more cautious approach, maintaining military alliances with Australia but prioritizing independent decision-making on military deployments and procurement.
• Jones Approach: Formal neutrality, abolishment of armed forces (except civil defense), and reliance on geographical isolation for security.

The article acknowledges the significant cost of increased defense spending required by the first two options.

Nuclear-Free Policy Reconsideration

The core argument is that New Zealand's nuclear-free policy needs review in the face of global trends. The author suggests that unless New Zealand is prepared for significant increases in defense spending, a reassessment of its nuclear stance and alliance strategies is necessary, possibly leaning towards a more independent and less costly approach.