What turnout in Florida and Wisconsin says about the political moment | CNN Politics

Democratic Overperformance in Special Elections

Democrats significantly outperformed their 2024 election results in recent special elections held in Florida and Wisconsin. This trend, while not guaranteeing future success, suggests a potentially stronger Democratic base voter turnout in off-cycle elections.

Analysis of Special Election Results

CNN's analysis of 12 House special elections between June 2022 and November 2024 revealed an average margin of 10.8 points more favorable to Democrats than in the 2022 midterms. In Florida, Democratic candidates in both the 1st and 6th districts substantially narrowed the Republican margins from the general election.

Turnout and its Impact

Turnout in these special elections varied widely. Democratic success seemed linked to lower turnout elections, however Tuesday's elections showed strong Democratic performance even with higher-than-average turnout.

• High turnout in Wisconsin's Supreme Court race, with Democratic-backed candidate Susan Crawford achieving a decisive victory.
• In Florida's 6th district, turnout was nearly two-thirds of the 2022 midterm turnout, yet Democrats still significantly outperformed.

Potential Explanations

Several factors may contribute to these results: a more engaged Democratic base, a shift in voter registration, and the potential for crossover voting (Republicans voting for Democrats).

Implications for Future Elections

While these results are encouraging for Democrats, the impact on future midterms remains uncertain. Republicans argue the Democratic advantage in off-cycle elections may not persist in higher turnout elections.