Who will win Canada’s election in 2025? Polls and predictions

Key Factors Driving the Snap Election

The article discusses the upcoming Canadian federal election, a snap election called by Prime Minister Mark Carney in response to rising trade tensions with the US. The election, originally scheduled for October 2025, is now set for April 28, 2025. Carney believes holding the election sooner will capitalize on his party's recent increase in poll ratings following President Trump's trade threats.

Candidates and Parties

The main contenders are:

• Mark Carney (Liberal Party): The current prime minister, a former economist and head of the Bank of England.
• Pierre Poilievre (Conservative Party): A career politician and populist leader.
• Jagmeet Singh (New Democratic Party): Leader of the left-leaning NDP.
• Yves-François Blanchet (Bloc Québécois): Advocates for Quebec's sovereignty.

The election will be contested for 343 seats in the House of Commons; the party securing the majority will form the government. A minority government is possible, leading to potential coalitions.

The Stakes

The election is considered critical due to the escalating trade war with the US and Trump's threats. Experts highlight the election as an "existential" moment for Canada's independence, with concerns about Trump's potential actions against Canada's mineral reserves and border integration.

Polls and Predictions

Although the article notes a recent surge in support for the Liberals, it doesn't provide specific polling numbers or definitive election predictions, leaving the outcome open for speculation.