Who will win the 23 most marginal seats this federal election?

Key Marginal Seats Analysis

This article presents a crowdsourced analysis of 23 highly contested Australian federal election seats, along with insights from engaged readers ('Eggheads'). The analysis considers local factors rather than relying solely on national polls, acknowledging the complexity introduced by minor parties and independent candidates.

Key Findings

• Fowler (NSW): Dai Le (Independent) predicted to win.
• Robertson (NSW): Gordon Reid (Labor) predicted to win narrowly.
• Cowper (NSW): Caz Heise (Independent) predicted to win narrowly.
• Bradfield (NSW): Nicolette Boele (Independent) predicted to win.
• Mackellar (NSW): Sophie Scamps (Independent) predicted to win easily.
• Wentworth (NSW): Split decision; Allegra Spender (Independent) likely but close race.
• Deakin (Vic): Michael Sukkar (Liberal) predicted to win very narrowly.
• Kooyong (Vic): Monique Ryan (Independent) predicted to win.
• Goldstein (Vic): Close call between Tim Wilson (Liberal) and Zoe Daniel (Independent).
• Chisholm (Vic): Too close to call.
• Aston (Vic): Manny Cicchiello (Liberal) predicted to win.
• Wannon (Vic): Alex Dyson (Independent) predicted to win.
• Wills (Vic): Peter Khalil (Labor) predicted to win.
• Macnamara (Vic): Split decision between Josh Burns (Labor) and Sonya Semmens (Greens).
• Ryan (Qld): Elizabeth Watson-Brown (Greens) predicted to win narrowly.
• Bonner (Qld): Ross Vasta (LNP) predicted to win.
• Sturt (SA): Claire Clutterham (Labor) predicted to win.
• Boothby (SA): Louise Miller-Frost (Labor) predicted to win.
• Moore (WA): Vince Connelly (Liberal) predicted to win narrowly.
• Canning (WA): Andrew Hastie (Liberal) predicted to win.
• Curtin (WA): Kate Chaney (Independent) predicted to win.
• Tangney (WA): Sam Lim (Labor) predicted to win.
• Lyons (Tas): Too close to call.

The analysis highlights the significant role of independent candidates and preference flows in determining election outcomes. Local issues, such as climate change, cost of living, and community concerns, heavily influence voter choices. The article uses reader observations and anecdotal evidence to create the picture.