The author contends that Europe lacks the military strength to win the war in Ukraine, making Trump's peace deal, though seemingly unfair, the least worst option. Despite Russia's aggression and violation of international law, the current military situation favors neither side decisively.
Europe's military capabilities are portrayed as insufficient. The author highlights the failed Ukrainian counter-offensive, the West's misjudgment of sanctions' effectiveness, and the internal divisions within Europe as factors necessitating a negotiated settlement rather than continued conflict.
The article suggests that Trump's deal, or a variant thereof, could save lives, prevent escalation, and even open the door for Ukrainian EU membership. However, rejecting the deal carries the risk of reduced US support, increasing the burden on Europe and potentially jeopardizing NATO's security guarantee.
Peace negotiations, the author argues, must start from the existing military reality. The article underscores the unpopularity of peacemaking, comparing the situation to similar historical events and noting the inherent difficulty of unbiased mediation.
The author concludes that while not ideal, accepting the deal is necessary for Europe's survival and security in the face of an unwinnable war. They express hope that both Ukraine and Europe will ultimately recognize this reality and avoid the potential for further escalation.