The article analyzes the upcoming succession of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, focusing on his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the leading candidate. Despite lacking the religious qualifications typically expected, Mojtaba is seen by some as a modernizer who could potentially reform the system.
While Mojtaba has significant political influence, his lack of public speeches and religious publications raises questions about his suitability. Supporters highlight his potential to combat corruption and revitalize the government, drawing parallels to Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince. However, critics point to his history of supporting hard-liners and suppressing reform movements. The article presents arguments both for and against Mojtaba's qualifications.
Regardless of who succeeds Khamenei, Iran is expected to face challenges. The educated population demands freedom, democracy, and human rights, creating a substantial gap between popular desires and the government's repression. The article suggests that any new supreme leader will face immense pressure from the populace.
The article discusses the potential impact of US sanctions on Iran and suggests that lifting these sanctions could empower Iranian civil society and facilitate a transition to a more democratic system. The possibility of a deal between the US and Iran, potentially involving a compromise on Iran's nuclear program, is also considered.
The article concludes that the next supreme leader's success will depend heavily on Iran's socio-political context and US-Iran relations. While potential reforms are considered, the article underscores the inherent contradictions within the system and the pressing need for societal change.