Will the Tariff Fiasco Screw Up Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill?

Trump's Tariffs and the Instability of His Legislative Agenda

The article analyzes the potential impact of Trump's global tariff regime on the success of his legislative agenda. The author likens the situation to a Jenga tower, highlighting the fragility of the narrowly held Republican majority in Congress and the 'one big, beautiful bill' strategy.

Economic and Political Risks

The tariffs' short-term economic consequences are acknowledged as potentially painful, even by those who support the long-term goal of reordering the global trading system. The author points out that the transition period will likely be politically tumultuous, questioning whether Republicans will maintain support for Trump's agenda amid potential economic hardship and decreasing approval ratings.

• Increased inflation could lead to resistance against domestic spending cuts.
• The possibility of stagflation poses a serious threat, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to take actions counter to the Republican Congress's plans.

The article underscores the growing frustration among congressional Republicans, who fear the difficulties of passing their tax-and-cut plan amid a turbulent economic climate.

Uncertainty and Instability

The author concludes that the passage of Trump's legislative agenda hinges on a stable political and economic environment. The current instability caused by Trump's actions significantly increases the difficulty of keeping the entire agenda intact, leaving the ultimate success of his plans uncertain.