The article investigates a series of attacks in Germany preceding the 2024 European elections, raising suspicions of Russian involvement. The attacks, often committed by individuals with Islamic backgrounds, coincided with declining poll numbers for the AfD, a party with pro-Russian stances.
Evidence includes Google searches for attack targets originating from Russia and attempts to access webcams overlooking attack locations. While perpetrators cited personal motivations, experts like Steven Broschart find the timing and multiple incidents suspicious.
The frequency of these attacks shows a marked increase around election times, suggesting a deliberate campaign to influence public opinion.
The article highlights Russia's increasingly aggressive tactics in Western Europe since the invasion of Ukraine, ranging from spreading disinformation to violent acts. Experts cite a ‘klusjeseconomie’ (gig economy) approach, utilizing low-level agents recruited online for minor tasks that contribute to larger goals.
While the German intelligence service is hesitant to draw conclusions, the investigation continues. The GRU (Russian military intelligence) and possibly the FSB are suspected to be actively involved, employing methods that leave traces but are easily deniable, making it difficult to definitively prove Russian involvement despite strong circumstantial evidence.
The Center for Strategic & International Studies notes a threefold increase in suspected Russian shadow operations in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating escalation. The article concludes that even if the direct link to Russia remains unproven, the pattern is deeply concerning, highlighting the potential for hybrid warfare to destabilize Europe.