高盛:中国GDP增速或因美国104%关税下降2.4个百分点 - WSJ


Goldman Sachs predicts that US tariffs on Chinese goods will reduce China's GDP growth by approximately 2.4 percentage points.
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据高盛(Goldman Sachs)称,定于周三生效的美国对中国商品加征的约100%关税,会对中国经济增长率构成约2.4个百分点的拖累。中国已将今年的增长目标设定为5%左右。高盛目前预计的经济增速是4.5%,同时指出据其预期存在下行风险。高盛表示,美国关税的影响并不是线性的,因为在某些情况下,中国是某种产品的主要或唯一来源地,因此美国人很难找到替代品。该行表示,在美国从中国进口的产品中,约有三分之一是美国对华依赖度超过70%。该分析暗示,即使美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)进一步提高关税,对中国经济的进一步损害也将是有限的,尽管到目前为止压力相当大。

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