Page Reader AI | 高盛：中国GDP增速或因美国104%关税下降2.4个百分点

高盛：中国GDP增速或因美国104%关税下降2.4个百分点 - WSJ

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Key Findings

Goldman Sachs estimates that the newly imposed US tariffs on Chinese goods, approximately 100%, will negatively impact China's economic growth by about 2.4 percentage points. This is significant considering China's GDP growth target is around 5% for the year.

Goldman Sachs' Prediction

Goldman Sachs currently projects China's GDP growth at 4.5%, noting a downside risk. The analysis suggests that even further tariff increases by the US president would have a limited additional impact on China's economy, although the current pressure is substantial.

Impact of Tariffs

The report highlights that the effect of US tariffs isn't uniform. In cases where China is the primary or sole supplier of a product, it is difficult for the US to find alternatives. Notably, approximately one-third of US imports from China involve products with US dependence exceeding 70%.

据高盛(Goldman Sachs)称，定于周三生效的美国对中国商品加征的约100%关税，会对中国经济增长率构成约2.4个百分点的拖累。中国已将今年的增长目标设定为5%左右。高盛目前预计的经济增速是4.5%，同时指出据其预期存在下行风险。高盛表示，美国关税的影响并不是线性的，因为在某些情况下，中国是某种产品的主要或唯一来源地，因此美国人很难找到替代品。该行表示，在美国从中国进口的产品中，约有三分之一是美国对华依赖度超过70%。该分析暗示，即使美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)进一步提高关税，对中国经济的进一步损害也将是有限的，尽管到目前为止压力相当大。