This article explores the evolving dynamics of China's influence on the selection of the next Pope. While Cardinal Pietro Parolin was initially considered a favored candidate by Beijing, recent observations suggest a potential shift in China's strategy.
The article highlights China's active role in global affairs and its calculated approach to exerting influence. It posits that China is closely monitoring the pre-conclave preparations and has likely identified a preferred outcome. Although certainty is impossible, the article suggests that China may be actively working against Parolin's candidacy, favoring another papal candidate instead.
The piece emphasizes the speculative nature of the analysis. While it acknowledges the conventional wisdom surrounding Parolin's perceived favor with Beijing, it presents the emerging possibility that China may be reconsidering its support, leaving the identity of their preferred candidate uncertain.
The Chinese government has, to put it mildly, an active interest in world affairs and geopolitics. It has long understood the importance of diplomatic and strategic inflection points, and it has long enjoyed the reputation for the calculated application of pressure.
It is, in short, impossible to imagine that Beijing is not watching the pre-conclave preparations with interest. And it is equally hard to conceive that they have not gamed out the potential results, and identified their preferred outcome.
But what may they have concluded — and who would be the preferred candidate of the Chinese government?
While it is impossible to say for certain, there are certainly a few clear datapoints to consider, and some reasonable, though surprising, conclusions to draw.
Conventionally, Cardinal Pietro Parolin has been widely considered to be a preferred candidate of Beijing. But in recent days, it has begun to appear that China could be laying the groundwork to throttle back a Parolin candidacy — in favor of another papal candidate.
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