The article analyzes a memorandum of understanding between the US and Ukraine, focusing on its implications for a future resource deal. The agreement, a preliminary step towards a larger investment fund for Ukrainian reconstruction, remains unclear on the specific allocation of mineral, oil, and gas revenues. While the memorandum doesn't explicitly mention security guarantees for Ukraine in exchange for resources, it notably states that the US won't impede Ukraine's EU membership aspirations.
The article suggests the US aims to be the preferred partner for investment in Ukrainian mining and infrastructure. It also highlights the involvement of European actors, particularly France, in parallel peace negotiations, indicating potential future European participation in any resource agreement. The involvement of Turkey is also foreseen.
Significant challenges are noted, such as the location of the most lucrative resources in Russian-controlled territories, and the need for significant investment in modernizing Ukraine's infrastructure. The article raises concerns about the lack of clarity and conflicting statements from US officials about the resource deal and its relation to peace negotiations, suggesting a possible strategic approach characterized by alternating optimism and pessimism.
The article discusses the influence of low oil prices, a consequence of increased oil production partially driven by Trump's policies, on Russia's ability to sustain the war effort. The parallel is drawn with the Reagan-Thatcher era where similar policies negatively impacted the Soviet Union. However, the true impact of these low prices will only be felt in Russia a year or so later, implying the conflict may persist.