Onet's latest forecast indicates Rafał Trzaskowski as the frontrunner in the Polish presidential election, though his support is at a record low of 33.1%. Karol Nawrocki's support has dropped significantly, down 1.4 percentage points to 25.9%. Sławomir Mentzen and Szymon Hołownia also experienced declines. Conversely, left-wing candidates Magdalena Biejat and Adrian Zandberg have seen considerable increases in support, doubling their ratings over the past month. Grzegorz Braun also shows increased support.
The significant increase in support for left-wing candidates mirrors similar late-campaign surges observed in other countries, such as Germany's Die Linke party in 2021.
Record numbers of Poles abroad are registered to vote, exceeding previous presidential election levels. High levels of voter registration abroad typically correlate with higher domestic turnout, potentially leading to an overall turnout as high as 65%. Higher numbers of votes from abroad traditionally favor the current ruling party.
The forecast predicts Trzaskowski as the likely victor in a second round with 53.2% of the vote, with a 92% probability of winning according to Onet's model. Key regions for each candidate include Łódź (crucial for Nawrocki) and Silesia (crucial for Trzaskowski).
Onet's model considers two main elements: polls about the candidates' support in a second round and party polls to the Sejm. It utilizes 100,000 simulations to estimate probabilities.