Donald Trump's announcement of massive tariffs on imports to the United States has been described as a historic day, but not in the way Trump anticipated. This action has unified the world against what is perceived as American aggression, reminiscent of protectionist policies from the past. This has inadvertently consolidated China's position as an alternative, especially as it's gaining influence in areas previously dominated by the US.
China's response to the Myanmar earthquake, providing substantial aid while the US was largely absent, showcases this shift. The agreement between Beijing, Japan, and South Korea to create a common response to trade sanctions further illustrates the changing geopolitical landscape. This situation aligns with Xi Jinping's 2018 prediction of 'unprecedented changes' in the world, paralleling changes after World War I.
The global stock market downturn reflects the uncertainty caused by Trump's protectionism. The US is isolating itself while other countries, fearing similar treatment, are seeking alternatives. Experts like Jude Blanchette highlight this shift in a Foreign Affairs article, connecting it to technological advancements and instability in US and European politics. Companies like Apple, forced to manufacture in China for cost reasons, face challenges with these protectionist policies.
The US auto industry, projected to lose $110 billion due to the tariffs, exemplifies the negative domestic consequences. The feasibility of complete US manufacturing of many goods (cars, cellphones, shoes) is questionable, emphasizing the complexities of reversing globalization. The Democratic party, representing corporate interests, expresses discontent with Trump's policies, highlighted in Hillary Clinton's New York Times article.
China is navigating this evolving situation with refined diplomacy, forging alliances (such as with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE) and securing key assets (like the Panama Canal ports). However, China still faces challenges, particularly with Europe due to its alignment with Russia in the Ukraine war. The situation raises questions about whether China will actively exploit the transatlantic rift created by the US. The article concludes by raising the possibility of a major geopolitical shift, echoing Xi Jinping's earlier prediction.